Author Topic: Corona Virus  (Read 11395 times)

Offline maxtog

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #120 on: May 26, 2020, 03:17:24 PM »
No masks were worn.  No one called the law and the septic system held up admirably.  We did have chairs spread out on the lawn to keep some semblance of distance.

For that case, that's all that is needed, really.  If you are outdoors and nobody gets close to each other, that is a reasonable precaution.  Now, if you had food and were all touching the same serving spoons or something, that wouldn't be good.  But sitting and talking, no big whoop.  I have done that several times with friends.
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Offline Rick Hall

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #121 on: May 26, 2020, 07:08:05 PM »
...
Buzzing my entire head with a #3 works great. Besides, even a bad haircut grows out in time.
...
Used to load up a #4 comb, now it's a #3 as not much on top any more. Nape of neck also a #3 comb and probably looks like a Mullet that slipped aft and down... or a duck tail. I can't see it, and nobody has (of yet) commented "who cut your hair, man?", so I ain't changing my routine ;)

Rick
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Offline turbojoe78

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #122 on: May 27, 2020, 05:30:01 AM »
Watching the news and seeing folks crowding the beaches and bars (99.9% w/o masks or social distancing) over the holiday weekend, mostly down south but not exclusively. In a few clips the reporter asks the people if they are worried or concerned about catching the virus or passing it on to someone else.

Many stating that they are not worried and that God will protect them.

Really? What of the nearly 100k people in our country that have died as a result? Or the nearly 350k that have died worldwide? Where they all Godless? Did God turn his back on them for some reason and not protect them? 

Morons, every last one of them. If you're in this mindset, then you too are a moron.

Since we are calling names now I'll correct you … I am not a moron, but I may be deplorable, and you sir … are a sheep!  BBBAAAAAAAA!
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Offline Conrad

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #123 on: May 27, 2020, 06:23:54 AM »
Watching the news and seeing folks crowding the beaches and bars (99.9% w/o masks or social distancing) over the holiday weekend, mostly down south but not exclusively. In a few clips the reporter asks the people if they are worried or concerned about catching the virus or passing it on to someone else.

Many stating that they are not worried and that God will protect them.

Really? What of the nearly 100k people in our country that have died as a result? Or the nearly 350k that have died worldwide? Where they all Godless? Did God turn his back on them for some reason and not protect them? 

Morons, every last one of them. If you're in this mindset, then you too are a moron.

Since we are calling names now I'll correct you … I am not a moron, but I may be deplorable, and you sir … are a sheep!  BBBAAAAAAAA!

Are you saying that you do not take any precautions to protect yourself, or those around you, from the possibility of contracting the virus based only upon the idea that God will protect you from infection?

And you're calling me a sheep?    :o 
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Offline VirginiaJim

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #124 on: May 27, 2020, 06:51:09 AM »
Virginia, starting this Friday, is now requiring anyone going into a public building wear a mask.  Of course you can take the mask off when eating so I'm wondering does this mean that the mask stays on until the food arrives?  I'm thinking yes.  This is coming from our governor who showed up at a beach without a mask this past weekend.  He got flack for that and I guess this is his way of getting back at everyone.  This mask thing only applies to inside so those of you massing on beaches and outside activities can continue on.


According to the guv'nor, this is not enforceable via law enforcement and that no police action will take place and no summons issued..............however, he is leaving it up to the business' to enforce and if someone isn't willing to comply law enforcement can be called to remove said individual which, of course, leads to escalation and on and on and on....


Personally, I'm going to continue what I'm doing and stay away from everything (except liquor stores) do what we have been doing and ordering take out.  I really hate this sh*t.
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Offline maxtog

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #125 on: May 27, 2020, 04:16:36 PM »
And now we finally have some updated statistics for the USA:

0.4% of people who feel sick with Covid-19 (have symptoms), and seek help, will die.
For people under 50 the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die (that is 1 in 2,000).

Note, that is not your total risk, because many will be exposed and never have any symptoms.  So those numbers are still MUCH HIGHER than reality!  35% of people infected had no symptoms and sought no care at all.  So you have to adjust the numbers to account for that (by reducing them by 35%):

0.26% of all people who were infected by Covid-19 will die.
For people under 50 the estimate would be 0.0325% of people will die (that is 1 in 3,077).

And note, the number will be much lower, yet, for those who have no pre-existing health conditions (but higher for those who do have pre-existing conditions), there just isn't enough data to compute and express that.

This has nothing to do with "flattening the curve", shutting down the economy, social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing, or whatever.  It isn't the risk of catching the virus, it is the total risk of death AFTER exposure.  Obviously, if you don't catch it, there is 0% risk of death from it; and if you are high-risk, it would be much better to not catch it.

It is still serious, but this helps paint a much more accurate picture of the situation.  It is many, many orders of magnitude less than the initial predictions.
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Offline Conrad

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #126 on: May 28, 2020, 06:59:36 AM »
And now we finally have some updated statistics for the USA:

0.4% of people who feel sick with Covid-19 (have symptoms), and seek help, will die.
For people under 50 the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die (that is 1 in 2,000).

Note, that is not your total risk, because many will be exposed and never have any symptoms.  So those numbers are still MUCH HIGHER than reality!  35% of people infected had no symptoms and sought no care at all.  So you have to adjust the numbers to account for that (by reducing them by 35%):

0.26% of all people who were infected by Covid-19 will die.
For people under 50 the estimate would be 0.0325% of people will die (that is 1 in 3,077).

And note, the number will be much lower, yet, for those who have no pre-existing health conditions (but higher for those who do have pre-existing conditions), there just isn't enough data to compute and express that.

This has nothing to do with "flattening the curve", shutting down the economy, social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing, or whatever.  It isn't the risk of catching the virus, it is the total risk of death AFTER exposure.  Obviously, if you don't catch it, there is 0% risk of death from it; and if you are high-risk, it would be much better to not catch it.

It is still serious, but this helps paint a much more accurate picture of the situation.  It is many, many orders of magnitude less than the initial predictions.

Where in the world are you getting those numbers from Max?

Let's do this the easy way.

As of this moment there have been 1,739,859 confirmed C19 deaths cases* in this country. Yes, that number is most certainly higher because of the lack of testing. Thank you FedGov.

The number of dead from C19 stands at 101,762 at this moment. Could that number be higher? Maybe but let's go with that.

Doing the math with those numbers yields a morality mortality rate of ~5.8%.

5.8% dead!

That's a FAR cry from your numbers that start with a decimal point.

* (thanks Marty)
« Last Edit: May 29, 2020, 07:03:03 AM by Conrad »
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Offline VirginiaJim

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #127 on: May 28, 2020, 07:34:48 AM »
At this moment in time, VA has a 3.2% death rate (VA website), NY has 8% (Johns Hopkins website) so it's really location based as to the number of deaths per infected unfortunately.  Overall it may be lower than those figures if you average it out.  I'm definitely staying away from NY.  I would think that denser population centers would have a higher death rate.  It is safer to be in Alaska but they don't have the population the lower 48 has.  Next safest place is Hawaii.

Not going to Sweden.  Death rate is darn near 12%.  Not prudent at all.  Worse than New York which is weird to me.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/



No matter what anyone says, this is not a 'normal' flu virus.  It acts differently and it seems to have more long term varying side effects than the 'normal' flu's that occurs year to year.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2020, 09:50:08 AM by VirginiaJim »
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Offline just gone

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #128 on: May 28, 2020, 09:52:41 AM »
fify
Where in the world are you getting those numbers from Max?

Let's do this the easy way.

As of this moment there have been 1,739,859 confirmed C19 deaths cases in this country. Yes, that number is most certainly higher because of the lack of testing. Thank you FedGov.

The number of dead from C19 stands at 101,762 at this moment. Could that number be higher? Maybe but let's go with that.

Doing the math with those numbers yields a morality rate of ~5.8%.

5.8% dead!

That's a FAR cry from your numbers that start with a decimal point.

Offline just gone

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #129 on: May 28, 2020, 10:25:14 AM »
Not going to Sweden.  Death rate is darn near 12%.  Not prudent at all.  Worse than New York which is weird to me.

We need to think long term (relatively speaking) about the Sweden model, yes they went a different way and even they admit they screwed up on nursing homes. However
despite their initially high numbers, they might actually do better than the rest of us in total percent since they might not get a second wave of cases between now and when
ever widespread effective vaccines are available. Plus their economy is still relatively vibrant. I'm not saying they are right, (easy guys) I'm just pointing out they are doing it a different way and
we probably won't know for 5 years whether they were correct. It probably won't take that long for the health numbers to settle, but the economic numbers might. I don't want
to get into the economy vs health debate which would quickly go political here, but one needs to factor in that the economy effects health. A bad economy can effect health, long term
 stress is never good for the body. Heart attacks, strokes, spousal abuse, child abuse, suicide, and increased deaths due to lack of health insurance can easily go up during economic stress.
 I hope for a returning vibrant economy to spring up, but who knows it may undulate for several years after this pandemic wraps up.

All that to say, I think Sweden is doing the world a favor in doing it their way. If all the first world countries handled the pandemic the same way there is less to be learned. Whether they are
correct or not, five years from now we'll have much more info than if they did it the same way as the other countries.

Only somewhat related I found this interesting. I remember as a kid not being allowed to go places because of polio concerns.
 
Quote from: The Guardian
The summer of 1952 was hot, even by Texas standards: 25 days above 100F (38C), the “cool” days not much cooler. But across the state, swimming pools were shut. Cinemas, too, and bars and bowling alleys. Church services were suspended. Cities doused their streets with DDT insecticide; by now, health officials knew that mosquitoes didn’t spread the disease, but they had to be seen to be doing something. Nothing seemed to work. As the summer wore on, the numbers of.....

Offline BruceR

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #130 on: May 28, 2020, 11:06:07 AM »


As of this moment there have been 1,739,859 confirmed C19 deaths in this country. Yes, that number is most certainly higher because of the lack of testing. Thank you FedGov.

Do you still think the number of people tested is because there are no test kits available, or maybe because most people without symptoms don'r feel a need to get tested?  I'm in the latter group, myself.  And I work at a medical facility, and know that there are ample tests available.  But wearing a mask to enter, no visitors allowed, and having temperature checked daily before entering means that unless I'm symptomatic there's not a real need to get myself tested.
I think number of cases is probably far more than number tested.

Offline Conrad

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #131 on: May 28, 2020, 11:17:37 AM »
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Offline VirginiaJim

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #132 on: May 28, 2020, 11:27:52 AM »

Do you still think the number of people tested is because there are no test kits available, or maybe because most people without symptoms don'r feel a need to get tested?  I'm in the latter group, myself.  And I work at a medical facility, and know that there are ample tests available.  But wearing a mask to enter, no visitors allowed, and having temperature checked daily before entering means that unless I'm symptomatic there's not a real need to get myself tested.
I think number of cases is probably far more than number tested.



I think the latter, especially with me.  I have no symptoms and don't feel like getting in a line like a herd of cattle waiting to be slaughtered (probably a bad analogy but I'm going with it).  I look at it like this.  If I feel bad enough that I can't breathe or something of similar symptoms then I'm calling an ambulance to come get me.  Not going to wait in a line for the Man to get me with a swab.  I don't like waiting in line for anything.  If I have to wait for it then it isn't worth it for me.


You may be right about the positive number of cases with no symptoms vs testing although testing is ramping up substantially here.  VA has tested 319,600, with a 12.7% positive result.  Population of Virginia is 8.36 million.


https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/  and look under the testing tab.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2020, 05:10:55 PM by VirginiaJim »
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Offline maxtog

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #133 on: May 28, 2020, 03:36:57 PM »
Where in the world are you getting those numbers from Max?

The CDC.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

It is the most accurate data we have at this time.  Not everyone agrees with the projections, but you never get agreement on ANY projections.  It could be wrong- it might be too high or too low, and the projections will likely get more and more accurate over time.  But these aren't MY numbers, I am just relaying credible information, that's all.

Quote
Doing the math with those numbers yields a morality rate of ~5.8%. That's a FAR cry from your numbers that start with a decimal point.

Yes, it is.  Your number is a death rate of those who were tested for COVID-19, and not tested for antibodies, and tested positive for COVID-19, and have gone for treatment, and died (presumably from COVID-19).  It is not an actual full mortality rate nor a risk assessment.  You can't take a small, non-random, sub-section of people and count how many died and extend that number to the population at large.  That is not to say it isn't a useful number, but it isn't what most people think it is.  You do NOT have anywhere near a 5.8% chance of dying from COVID-19 as a random person plucked from the population.

I am not a statistical expert, nor am I am epidemiologist.  But I had many statistics credits in my degree and can generally understand the reports and what they mean.  I also cross-checked my conclusions with other sources carefully before I posted them.
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Offline BruceR

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #135 on: May 28, 2020, 05:50:47 PM »
Max, don't let facts get in the way of a good story.  And don't remind anyone that their President speculated months ago that the mortality rate would be less than 1%.  I got beat up pretty good by the same guy questioning your numbers when I stated that most doctors around the world rate hydroxychloroquine (sp?) as the best treatment for Covid-19.  Even though it was a readily available survey result based on what thousands of doctors around the world were reporting. 

Offline T Cro ®

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #136 on: May 28, 2020, 06:10:35 PM »
... Not going to wait in a line for the Man to get me with a swab.  I don't like waiting in line for anything.  If I have to wait for it then it isn't worth it for me...

Absolutely no f'in way am I going to voluntary have a swab stuck up my nose till it touches my pea sized brain...
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Offline maxtog

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #137 on: May 28, 2020, 09:38:47 PM »
Absolutely no f'in way am I going to voluntary have a swab stuck up my nose till it touches my pea sized brain...

I kinda feel the same way, unless it was really necessary.  I have seen just how far that sucker goes.  And if it is worse than the regular flu swab I had several years ago (which turned out positive), I think I will pass.  With that in mind, I would still take an antibody test if offered one (that is not up the nose), see below....

If I had symptoms, I might submit to the present-infection test, although knowing positive/negative doesn't really change much.  If I didn't have it, it changes nothing.  If I did have it, it changes nothing- I would still seek care based on what was or was not happening with my body.  I would still take precautions not to spread it and would still self-isolate.  I take precautions regardless, even without any symptoms.  One can still have the virus and the test show nothing because the viral load isn't high enough yet.  One can have no symptoms and still spread it, even if the test was negative.  And one could test false positive and be in panic for no reason, or false negative and I suppose be irresponsible.  And one can test negative and then catch it the very same day, perhaps never to be tested again.

So the only real value in mass public testing for active infection on people without symptoms is when they are lucky enough to catch the rare person who is positive at the time AND without symptoms, allowing intense isolation to hopefully prevent additional spread.  But only a small percent of the population actively have it, and only 1/3 of those are people without symptoms.  It looks like a rather weak effort to make much of any difference, especially if people use common sense about protection.  It is really only a useful tool in a healthcare setting and for "hot spot" areas, like if a suspected outbreak started developing in a nursing home where you had to take swift and aggressive action to protect a large number of vulnerable people from each other (those who are old and typically also with numerous pre-existing conditions).

In my opinion, COVID-19 testing, in mass, of those with no symptoms is a mixed bag of mostly nothing but cost; more of a "but we have to 'do something'" kinda thing.  However, antibody testing for those without symptoms (and those who perhaps did have symptoms in the past and were never active tested), is a much more valuable tool for understanding the state of situation and predicting what is happening and might happen.  I would encourage everyone to participate in that, if they have the opportunity.

But speaking of appropriate testing to prevent issues in a healthcare setting of vulnerable people:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/21/nursing-homes-residents-account-for-81-of-covid-19-deaths-in-minnesota-but-state-still-allows-facilities-to-admit-covid-19-positive-patients/
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Offline turbojoe78

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #138 on: May 29, 2020, 05:50:00 AM »
I could go get tested for free if I wanted to but why?  I don't have any symptoms and the testing is reported to NOT be 100% accurate anyway.  And as for the 100,000+ deaths, how many were the flu?  I'm sure not many right?  In all past years I believe I've read that we have a annual loss of between 16,000 to 61,000 lives due to the seasonal flu.  But not this year right?  Because Dr. Birx said we didn't have a flu this year.  Well, all I can say about that is, thank God we didn't have a flu this year, can you imagine how high the death count would be if we did!   :o

With that said, and it being Friday, the start of the weekend, I'm going to stop by the "essential" liquor store on the way home from work and get a case of corona.  But don't worry, I'll put on my home made mask that's almost useless at stopping viruses to make everyone else feel safe.  We'll get thru this together.  ;)
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Offline MtnRider

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Re: Corona Virus
« Reply #139 on: May 29, 2020, 07:55:32 AM »
Absolutely no f'in way am I going to voluntary have a swab stuck up my nose till it touches my pea sized brain...

I was to have a nerve ablation procedure for back pain done back in March. They shut down elective procedures at that time so it didn't happen. I got a call about 3 weeks ago to reschedule it but I needed to have a Covid test a couple of days before the procedure.

OMG! That was unpleasant. I did ask for a note stating that, "yes, I do have a brain" to show my wife...  But they wouldn't do it.     :o  It's a female conspiracy!  ::)