Author Topic: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving  (Read 9995 times)

Offline VirginiaJim

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #100 on: April 01, 2020, 08:04:22 AM »
While the risk is lower with getting the virus from getting groceries and other stuff they are recommending that you sanitize by wiping off the surface or using soap and water on them if you can. 


I'm getting leery on getting mail out of the box or packages.  I open stuff up and then wash my hands again.  Why just recently I got my copy of American Iron and let it sit out for a few days and then wiped it down with wipes before I sat down to read it. 


Paranoia is running rampant and maybe for good reason at this point.
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Offline MtnRider

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #101 on: April 01, 2020, 08:26:01 AM »
Went Costco yesterday for senior hour. When I checked out confirming I did not want to box anything, they had me turn every product so the bar code was up. She scanned my CC while I held it and then scanned the products. The cashier and her assistant didn't touch a single thing. I thought was a great way of handling the checkout.  Of course, I didn't have the cart stuffed so everything was visible. All had gloves on, some masks, so when they had to handle bigger purchases they weren't touching barehanded. Not sure if that makes a difference, thou.

As far as riding, If there's an exception made for motorcycles, where do they stop making exceptions...? If you get in an injury accident, your fault or not, you end up tying up medical personnel and their PPE stuff. That said, I really want to get out & ride. Damn!

Colorado has stated they won't pull anyone over just to see if you are not observing the stay at home rules. Be glad you aren't in India. They will spray you with bleach, bitch slap the crap out of you or use a stout bamboo rod to whack the sh*t out of you if they think you're breaking their lock-down rules.

Offline just gone

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #102 on: April 01, 2020, 09:01:54 AM »
In the grand scheme of viruses this is a lot of hype with not that much actual content.  Not that precautions shouldn't be taken, but I think we've crossed rather deeply into the absurd category with Covid-19.
Here's some graphs that give a different take on what the news media is feeding us.  Notice the huge spike in media coverage of this virus vs. recent others that supposedly threatened humanity.
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR1F8vuK3OYEzoX1xBXCms0F6IqrwOs3W_Vy_aM0D8RCMuUm9qrzPTL69AI

Well yes, perhaps hyped up more than it should be. However the absurdity is that the hype is needed to break through to the thick headed people that would just go around infecting us all if the hype didn't exist. Sure maybe some of it is politically motivated, however I feel the media is doing us all a service by the hyping. Yes they want viewers and readers so that their advertising is seen, so they run with what they think people want to know about. However despite whatever political agenda or business model is driving the hype, the sad part is that without the hype, things would be much worse. Now as for the data presented on that site, I have a little trouble with the total mentions in the media numbers. The HIV section, are those just recent numbers?...because I remember huge numbers of stories and yes hype if you will, especially after AIDS/HIV crossed over into the Hetero' population.

Offline BruceR

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #103 on: April 01, 2020, 11:09:57 AM »
Hype and absurdity? At this late date?

You have got to be kidding me!?!?!?!?!?

Wake the **** up Bruce!!!
I am fully awake, and capable of seeing raw numbers vs. population, and looking at rates of cure and other factors and drawing a conclusion.  If you made an effort to look at ANY of the material I presented you might see why I hold the opinion I do.  Not that you have to believe what I believe, but I do resent that you somehow think I'm uninformed for being unimpressed by the measures put into place.  Do we really need to shut down an entire nation for a virus with a 98.5% cure rate?  Look at the number of times Covid-19 is mentioned in media vs. all other viruses and tell me again it's not a lot of hype and fear mongering?  Or keep yourself up at night worrying, and listening to the bleating talking heads on tv who spin numbers to make things seem more grave than they really are.

Offline just gone

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #104 on: April 01, 2020, 02:02:48 PM »
Other observations:
 Many in the past would write about young people not interacting face to face enough. They would rather interact on their phones through social media. This was criticized, commented on, and fretted over by mostly people in my age group (ol' farts). Now we've come full circle calling them careless and selfish and fool hardy for interacting with each other face to face on the beach and at parties and gatherings.
---------------------------------------
I'm still getting the mailings from seminars and meetings which include a free meal at a local restaurant for things like retirement info, investment info, retirement living places, lakeside living developments and medicare seminars. (no timeshare offers thank goodness)
These things were all mailed this week and yet the restaurants haven't been open except for carry out for at least two weeks in my area.
---------------------------------------
I remember years ago when it was considered a bit bizarre (well at least very different) when they had drive in church services at the local drive in movie theaters. Now that it would really make sense to do so, we don't have hardly any drive ins any more.

Just observations, no real points to be made here.

Offline B.D.F.

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #105 on: April 01, 2020, 02:50:28 PM »
Agreed- but how can we know? We (the general public) have no access to any raw data to make our own conclusions, the only info. we have is coming from official sources.

As to the media, are they hyping it or is it just the current event that they are reporting on? Again, difficult to say.

And for the million dollar question: what should we, all of us, do to navigate through this situation? Are we over reacting, not reacting enough or doing basically the right thing? Extremely difficult to answer, especially since almost everything about the transmission of viruses is a percentage, not a hard and fast rule. For example, can we really get this virus from mail that was handled by someone infected? I suspect it is possible but not even mildly likely- so what do we do with that, sterilize all the mail? Wait 9 days until any possible contamination is dead?

All these questions beat me for an answer. ? We all have to choose what we will / will not do during this epidemic and I do not think we can call even over- reactions 'wrong'.

Anyway, it is clear at this point that the rapids of COVID are longer and rougher than first anticipated. Best of luck to everyone and if possible, try not to obsess over this as that will only make an individual's situation even worse.

And just so this post is not all gloom and doom, I think the gummit has made some excellent choices: the Fed. gov't has eliminated any state barriers to medical personnel practicing anywhere in the US for the duration of this epidemic; this allows medico's to cross state lines even though they are not licensed in the destination state. FEMA has moved, and continues to move medical resources and personnel from areas either not or very lightly infected to areas that are hot spots, such as NYC. Again, I think these are simple but extremely effective things that can be implemented immediately without any long, costly or difficult preparation.

Brian


<snip>

Well yes, perhaps hyped up more than it should be.

<snip>

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Offline Michelle

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #106 on: April 01, 2020, 07:17:40 PM »
I am fully awake, and capable of seeing raw numbers vs. population, and looking at rates of cure and other factors and drawing a conclusion.  If you made an effort to look at ANY of the material I presented you might see why I hold the opinion I do.  Not that you have to believe what I believe, but I do resent that you somehow think I'm uninformed for being unimpressed by the measures put into place.  Do we really need to shut down an entire nation for a virus with a 98.5% cure rate?  Look at the number of times Covid-19 is mentioned in media vs. all other viruses and tell me again it's not a lot of hype and fear mongering?  Or keep yourself up at night worrying, and listening to the bleating talking heads on tv who spin numbers to make things seem more grave than they really are.

Please tell us more about this cure?
The reason you need to shut down an entire country is so that the unfortunate souls who aren't in the 80ish percent of people who only get mild or no symptoms, don't overwhelm the medical facilities and make them unavailable for any other medical need. You wouldn't want to be a cancer patient or have a heart attack in New York right now.
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Offline just gone

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #107 on: April 01, 2020, 08:23:15 PM »
Look at the number of times Covid-19 is mentioned in media vs. all other viruses and tell me again it's not a lot of hype and fear mongering? 

OK, I did look again, at least at the numbers you provided (Google News). It is a lot of hype and fear mongering....because there are so many out there that: take a lot of beating on the head to get through to them; and those that think it's all a plot (fake news) by the other political party to cause pain and losses to their party; and (this is the most important reason) to flatten the curve to maintain the 98.5% recovery rate which will definitely drop much lower if we run out of hospital beds and respirators for patients and PPE for our health workers. In other words the 98.5% recovery rate is because of the hype and fear mongering. Without the hype, the recovery rate could be down in the 80s percentile.  Now apparently you and my state's Lt. Governor think that the economy is more important than peoples lives. You both are entitled to those opinions, but I don't think you will convince the rest of us.

Regardless of how much hype there is now about Covid-19, I still don't believe the numbers provided by Google, they weren't even around when AIDs/HIV was at it's peak in the news.

Offline gPink

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #108 on: April 01, 2020, 08:28:27 PM »
Please tell us more about this cure?
The reason you need to shut down an entire country is so that the unfortunate souls who aren't in the 80ish percent of people who only get mild or no symptoms, don't overwhelm the medical facilities and make them unavailable for any other medical need. You wouldn't want to be a cancer patient or have a heart attack in New York right now.

Quite honestly, I wouldn't be in New York on a good day.

Offline BruceR

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #109 on: April 01, 2020, 08:30:17 PM »
Please tell us more about this cure?
The reason you need to shut down an entire country is so that the unfortunate souls who aren't in the 80ish percent of people who only get mild or no symptoms, don't overwhelm the medical facilities and make them unavailable for any other medical need. You wouldn't want to be a cancer patient or have a heart attack in New York right now.
Maybe I should have said survival rate?  And if you look at per capita infection rates you find the US & Germany are near the bottom of any list.  I wouldn t want cancer or a heart attack in ANY city in the US, but that doesn't change anything about covid-19 and the sensationalized reporting of it.  News media latches onto big numbers of deaths predicted for the US, yet don't tell you that those numbers are based on worst case scenario with no preventive steps being taken.  I have read a bit deeper than what the media presents, at real numbers, real reports, to come to my conclusions.  How about you?




Offline BruceR

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #110 on: April 01, 2020, 08:36:05 PM »
Now apparently you and my state's Lt. Governor think that the economy is more important than peoples lives. You both are entitled to those opinions, but I don't think you will convince the rest of us.
I'm not sure what state you're from, nor what your Lt. Governor claims.  I merely stated I think the media is manipuilating the numbers so we don't get a true sense of the danger.  And it has vilch to do with economy.  Did I ever mention that?  Or anything political?  Come on Marty, I could get numbers other than Google and we could have a good discourse- no need to put words in my mouth. 

Offline Rick Hall

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #111 on: April 01, 2020, 08:45:37 PM »
...
The reason you need to shut down an entire country is so that the unfortunate souls who aren't in the 80ish percent of people who only get mild or no symptoms...

This is one reason. Economics, and/or a  New World Order is another, but we save those posts for "The Arena". And if anyone here has an inkling...  :)

Bruce is right, the reported data is somewhat benign. But he's ignoring the data we don't know, most of us are.

The CV hit Colorado hard, specifically the ski towns. Our Govenator locked the ski towns down, closed the lifts, or something like that. The resorts likely suggested it too, I can't say. Regardless, no spring skiing in Colorado. Telluride is shut off from society, and quite a hard place to visit even if it's connected to the 'grid'. It's a hot spot, still is. I heard recently that everyone there will be getting the test, something that hasn't been done before. What will they find?

90% of those in town are carriers yet are asymptomatic? Think "Typhoid Mary" if you want.
Will they get retested in a week or month to confirm they're clean, asymptomatic, or the virus is gone?
Is the test 100% accurate?
Will the CV 'die out' with change of seasons, typical for the 'common' flu, or will it go dormant for a month/year?
Is six feet (two meters) adequate distance?
Testing in Belgium or Netherlands, I can't remember which, found CV in sewage water. Is this a concern?
One cat (Belgium) and two dogs (country unknown) came down with CV. Is this also a concern?

CV is new, we have little to compare it to, and very limited data. Perhaps it'll pass. Perhaps we'll develop a vaccine for it, pissing off the Aniti-Vaxers, perhaps it'll be a media event (I already know that is ;) ).

In recent history, the only thing we know how to do is avoid/slow/stop re-transmission. Other than the Black Plague, that means isolation until a solution is found. We'll get over this, the world populace is incredibly resourceful. If not, go ride! Or fly in my case ;)

Rick
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Offline Michelle

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #112 on: April 01, 2020, 10:04:41 PM »
Maybe I should have said survival rate? 
Yes, you should have. I knew what you meant, but not everybody is telepathic. Words are important.
Quote
I have read a bit deeper than what the media presents, at real numbers, real reports, to come to my conclusions.  How about you?
Real numbers? There is only one. The number of dead. The number of cases grows exponentially - the ones who have no symptoms and are not tested are not even counted. Nowhere near enough people are even tested. But if they aren't contained it will still spread.

Let's for example take your 99.5%. Then assume that everyone gets it - which they will if it isn't contained. The population of the US is what, 327 million? Half a percent of that is more than 160,000 dead people ... on top of the normal death rate from disease, accident and old age. A lot of bodies to get rid of in a hurry.
Doctors I know are expecting more like a 1% fatality rate. That's from the front line, not the media. And in Australia, a country the same size as the US with 10% of the population.
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Offline BruceR

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #113 on: April 02, 2020, 06:32:05 AM »
Again Michelle your numbers and what doctors are preparing for is worst case scenario.  Italy would be a good example of worst- case.  I could post another article explaining in more detail but I fear it would fall on deaf ears.  I just choose to see the brighter side and am not prepping for end times.  By all means do whatever you feel necessary to feel/be safe, as will I.  I hope you weren't affected by the massive fires in Australia.  My area took a big tornado hit 2 weeks before Covid-19 took off.  Poor timing to say the least.

Offline VirginiaJim

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #114 on: April 02, 2020, 07:28:47 AM »
Not to anyone in particular... 


Michelle, apologies as I don't want you to think this is about you, my rant being right after your post and such.



I've come up with my own philosophy on the 'general public'.....People are basically stupid and know very little about any science until they are 'whopped upside their heads' with a large heavy object or in this case a very very small object. 


I'm a scientific logical person.  I tend to agree with scientists such as Dr. Fauci (not to mention the rest of the world) whose been in this business for 50 years and knows what the hell he's talking about and not so much with government politicians (Federal and local) who cater to their own base and don't know sh*t until they've been dragged through it kicking and screaming.  Notice how they are changing their tunes now? I guess Easter isn't a milestone anymore.  I was so looking forward to that.


I'm near the breaking point with all of this, the politicians, the un-scientific luddites (look it up), being shut in the house and scared to go out, my company who's trying to force fit a 64 year old man into something he doesn't want to do and just about everything else going on.


Therefore, Rick, while not resigning from the form, I'm talking a vacation of sorts.  Don't know how long but I wish all of you the best and to stay safe as best you can or not.  Your choice after all.  Infect whom you want.


Jim



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Offline Conrad

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #115 on: April 02, 2020, 07:43:18 AM »
I am fully awake, and capable of seeing raw numbers vs. population, and looking at rates of cure and other factors and drawing a conclusion.  If you made an effort to look at ANY of the material I presented you might see why I hold the opinion I do.  Not that you have to believe what I believe, but I do resent that you somehow think I'm uninformed for being unimpressed by the measures put into place.  Do we really need to shut down an entire nation for a virus with a 98.5% cure rate?  Look at the number of times Covid-19 is mentioned in media vs. all other viruses and tell me again it's not a lot of hype and fear mongering?  Or keep yourself up at night worrying, and listening to the bleating talking heads on tv who spin numbers to make things seem more grave than they really are.

Yes, you should have. I knew what you meant, but not everybody is telepathic. Words are important.Real numbers? There is only one. The number of dead. The number of cases grows exponentially - the ones who have no symptoms and are not tested are not even counted. Nowhere near enough people are even tested. But if they aren't contained it will still spread.

Let's for example take your 99.5%. Then assume that everyone gets it - which they will if it isn't contained. The population of the US is what, 327 million? Half a percent of that is more than 160,000 dead people ... on top of the normal death rate from disease, accident and old age. A lot of bodies to get rid of in a hurry.
Doctors I know are expecting more like a 1% fatality rate. That's from the front line, not the media. And in Australia, a country the same size as the US with 10% of the population.

In Bruce's example he stated "a 98.5% cure rate". Ok, he meant survival rate.

To me that means that 1.5% do not survive. I'm sure that Michelle looked at that number incorrectly. 1.5% of 327 million is considerable more than 160K.

Further, Michelle, please check your math. How much is 0.5% of 327 million again? I believe that you have the decimal point in the wrong place.

By my math, and I used to be pretty good at it, 1.5% of 327 million is 4.9 million. That's 4.9 million dead Americans. But of course, not everyone will be infected.
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Offline Michelle

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #116 on: April 02, 2020, 07:52:31 AM »
Italy is a good example of wost case so far. There are other places that could go south real quick.
I am far from preparing for end times. I'm lucky enough that I live in a rural area of a large and sparsely populated country. My state is 380,000sq miles and has a population of about 1.7 million. 77% of them live in the capital city and that is where almost all our 367 covid19 cases are. We are prepared for a period of self isolation if there is a case near us, mostly because my husband is 70 and has COPD and I've been hospitalised twice with pneumonia. I'm not willing to gamble that we will be in the 80%.

No need to apologise Jim. I actually agree with you. I don't read most of the mainstream media and have an urge to whup people upside their heads at least once a day. I don't do faecesbook, so I'm thankfully spared the worst of human stupidity. Rather than wanting to know where the virus was at minute by minute (we all know it was on airplanes and those floating petri dishes called cruise liners) I wanted to know the science. Like what it does to you if you catch it. Lucky I'm not prone to becoming like chicken little ...

In Bruce's example he stated "a 98.5% cure rate". Ok, he meant survival rate.
By my math, and I used to be pretty good at it, 1.5% of 327 million is 4.9 million. That's 4.9 million dead Americans. But of course, not everyone will be infected.
My bad. I looked at that as 99.5%. And yes, after that I seem to have misplaced my decimal point.
Maths wasn't my strong point, but I excelled in English.  ;)
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Offline BruceR

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #117 on: April 02, 2020, 08:21:07 AM »
In Bruce's example he stated "a 98.5% cure rate". Ok, he meant survival rate.

To me that means that 1.5% do not survive. I'm sure that Michelle looked at that number incorrectly. 1.5% of 327 million is considerable more than 160K.

Further, Michelle, please check your math. How much is 0.5% of 327 million again? I believe that you have the decimal point in the wrong place.

By my math, and I used to be pretty good at it, 1.5% of 327 million is 4.9 million. That's 4.9 million dead Americans. But of course, not everyone will be infected.
okay- math time with (I think) real numbers.  This doing a quick search of total cases of COVID-19 in the US on Google.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

215,362 confirmed cases
5113 deaths

Doesn't that give a mortality rate of .02 and some change?
I don't trust my own math because when I divided number of cases by total population I got 6.5, which I think is too high.  Does 6.5% of the US have Covid-19? Might have misplaced the decimal as well?

This is why I look at what the media reports and say they've over-hyped it.  Dr Fauci has given us numbers for a worst case scenario- but that doesn't get emphasized.  The big scary numbers do though, and that is what I question.
As for me- I follow all the restrictions the local gov't has put in place.  I just wonder why no one on tv points out survival numbers, or percentage of population infected.  Why do we not hear about people recovered?  Do any of us think that of 215K people infected there will be 215K deaths? 


Offline just gone

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #118 on: April 02, 2020, 08:41:27 AM »
I'm not sure what state you're from, nor what your Lt. Governor claims.  I merely stated I think the media is manipuilating the numbers so we don't get a true sense of the danger.  And it has vilch to do with economy.  Did I ever mention that?  Or anything political?  Come on Marty, I could get numbers other than Google and we could have a good discourse- no need to put words in my mouth. 
I wasn't putting words in your mouth, I never claimed you were saying something political. I WAS giving reasons why the hype existed.  Manipulating numbers is a whole different claim than a more generalized hype. I did lump you in with the Lt. Governor (Texas) that says that we should let the old people (himself included) take care of themselves and we should otherwise just go about our business so that the economy survives. Perhaps that was an error on my part, perhaps not.

So I agreed with you about the hype, but I gave the reasons that I think it exists. Your original post seemed to be just about hype, now you are saying that the media is manipulating the numbers.
Perhaps you could just tell us why you think the media is doing the hype and allegedly manipulating the numbers. What is their goal here, if not to bang it into our heads to take this serious so that the hospitals don't become overwhelmed to the point that people needing treatment can't get it and are allowed to just die?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

okay- math time with (I think) real numbers.  This doing a quick search of total cases of COVID-19 in the US on Google.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

215,362 confirmed cases
5113 deaths

Doesn't that give a mortality rate of .02 and some change?
I don't trust my own math because when I divided number of cases by total population I got 6.5, which I think is too high.  Does 6.5% of the US have Covid-19? Might have misplaced the decimal as well?

This is why I look at what the media reports and say they've over-hyped it.  Dr Fauci has given us numbers for a worst case scenario- but that doesn't get emphasized.  The big scary numbers do though, and that is what I question.
As for me- I follow all the restrictions the local gov't has put in place.  I just wonder why no one on tv points out survival numbers, or percentage of population infected.  Why do we not hear about people recovered?  Do any of us think that of 215K people infected there will be 215K deaths? 
2.37+ % death percentage is what I get from those  numbers. However even if the total cases were to stop today at that number, I think it is safe to assume that more from that group (the 215K) will die and the percentage will go up. Only when (again in the scenario of no new cases) every one of the cases has panned out to either death or recovery can start accurately predicting death rates.
I think I can safely say that no here thinks the total number of cases will result in an equal number of deaths. I don't believe the current projections (? what? 100,000 - 240,00) are worst case scenarios. Millions are the worst case scenarios if the "hype" isn't listened to assuming some pre-vacination available alternate treatment (drug, transfusion of antibodies etc.) isn't found. Again, the hype is needed because once the hospitals and staff become overwhelmed the numbers will really go up percentage wise.

Offline just gone

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Re: Corona virus.... the gift that keeps on giving
« Reply #119 on: April 02, 2020, 08:46:46 AM »
Therefore, Rick, while not resigning from the form, I'm talking a vacation of sorts.  Don't know how long but I wish all of you the best and to stay safe as best you can or not.  Your choice after all.  Infect whom you want.


Jim





Well that just sucks. Before you go, could you get Rick to buy an Indian so we can pick on him until you return? It gets old just picking on max'.

Enjoy your vacation, and recover quickly because I don't want the virus to kill this forum too.