If you go to the Philips site that Mike pointed toward, they specifically say that their product emits 1,000 lumens. This and similar information (Hella, Matsushita, etc.) is the only information I believe to be accurate. The aftermarket crowd can claim a gazillion lumens.... I just do not believe it to be accurate :-)
I tend to agree with your statement. I find it very hard to believe the aftermarket claims for these LED bulbs we are talking about. Here are the chips I believe are being used (Philips Z-ES Lumileds):
http://www.lumileds.com/products/high-power-leds/luxeon-z-esAssuming the aftermarkets are not overdriving the chips, the typical luminous flux at 6500K appears to be about 245 per chip. The Philips bulbs use 6 chips = 1470, and the aftermarket uses 8 = 1960. Those would be the most optimistic numbers I would believe without further information. And is all that light actually available? Not sure. But I could believe these aftermarkets might be twice as bright as a typical halogen. But as bright as HID? I think not.
But.... here is the nearly identical JDM AStar version of the same thing:
https://www.amazon.com/JDM-ASTAR-Generation-Extremely-Headlights/dp/B018SYK6GW I trust them more, only because I have used their other products and they had the most accurate description of wattage and brightness. In their listing, they list 3500/4000 lumens with 8 lit ZES chips (and 25 W each). This is the lowest/most reasonable claim so far. Back to the [supposedly] reliable chip info above, if they are really consuming 25W, the chips are rated at 125 lumens per watt, which would be 3,125 lumens per bulb. Hmm.
Still, I think it is great progress if LEDs can equal halogen lighting, especially regarding a crisp cut- off line and possibly surpass it regarding power consumed and heat inside the light housing reduced (I do not really care about the heat sinks behind the reflector housings). And the layout of these new LED lamps is really very impressive, mimicking the physical size and location of H4 filaments. I hope and expect that shortly, as LED technology improves, they will out- distance all other forms of vehicle lighting.
Based on the above info, I think it might be fair to say that these new generation of LED bulbs might be able to reach at least double halogen brightness, if not more. If comparing to HID, is that good enough? Depends, let's compare other factors first....
These LED bulbs pros-
* Far less heat (my HID kit does seem to be offgassing from the base and damaging my reflector).
* Easier and faster install.
* Fewer electrical parts (a box yes, but not two like on HID).
* Possibly better cutoff and glare control.
* Instant on with no warmup.
* No mechanical parts (HID uses magnetism for high/low beam switching).
* No vibration or jiggle in the beam (a problem my HID kit has- it is inherent in the design of requiring the bulbs to be pulled in and out for high/low beam).
* No need for high voltage. Possibly less EMI. Certainly low inrush current.
* Cutoff rotation.
* The "filament" placement is likely to be more accurate over time.
* Lights are impervious to water/humidity/touch oils.
* Less load on the electrical system (more power for other things).
HID pros-
* More light.
* Probably better CRI (color rendering accuracy).
* More color choice.
Both can be had around the same price. Both should be a massive improvement over halogen bulbs. No data on reliability. But are the numerous pros of these new LED's enough to make me jump? Still thinking....