Author Topic: The Carrington Event was not unique  (Read 616 times)

Offline Conrad

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The Carrington Event was not unique
« on: September 01, 2020, 06:14:52 am »
https://spaceweather.com/

On Sept. 1st, 1859, the most ferocious solar storm in recorded history engulfed our planet. It was "the Carrington Event," named after British scientist Richard Carrington, who witnessed the flare that started it. The storm rocked Earth's magnetic field, sparked auroras over Cuba, the Bahamas and Hawaii, set fire to telegraph stations, and wrote itself into history books as the Biggest. Solar. Storm. Ever.

But, sometimes, what you read in history books is wrong.

"The Carrington Event was not unique," says Hisashi Hayakawa of Japan's Nagoya University, whose recent study of solar storms has uncovered other events of comparable intensity. "While the Carrington Event has long been considered a once-in-a-century catastrophe, historical observations warn us that this may be something that occurs much more frequently."

To generations of space weather forecasters who learned in school that the Carrington Event was one of a kind, these are unsettling thoughts. Modern technology is far more vulnerable to solar storms than 19th-century telegraphs. Think about GPS, the internet, and transcontinental power grids that can carry geomagnetic storm surges from coast to coast in a matter of minutes. A modern-day Carrington Event could cause widespread power outages along with disruptions to navigation, air travel, banking, and all forms of digital communication.

Many previous studies of solar superstorms leaned heavily on Western Hemisphere accounts, omitting data from the Eastern Hemisphere. This skewed perceptions of the Carrington Event, highlighting its importance while causing other superstorms to be overlooked.

A good example is the great storm of mid-September 1770, when extremely bright red auroras blanketed Japan and parts of China. Captain Cook himself saw the display from near Timor Island, south of Indonesia. Hayakawa and colleagues recently found drawings of the instigating sunspot, and it is twice the size of the Carrington sunspot group. Paintings, dairy entries, and other newfound records, especially from China, depict some of the lowest-latitude auroras ever, spread over a period of 9 days.

"We conclude that the 1770 magnetic storm was comparable to the Carrington Event, at least in terms of auroral visibility," wrote Hayakawa and colleagues in a 2017 Astrophysical Journal Letter. Moreover, "the duration of the storm activity was much longer than usual."

Hayakawa's team has delved into the history of other storms as well, examining Japanese diaries, Chinese and Korean government records, archives of the Russian Central Observatory, and log-books from ships at sea--all helping to form a more complete picture of events.

They found that superstorms in February 1872 and May 1921 were also comparable to the Carrington Event, with similar magnetic amplitudes and widespread auroras. Two more storms are nipping at Carrington's heels: The Quebec Blackout of March 13, 1989, and an unnamed storm on Sept. 25, 1909, were only a factor of ~2 less intense. (Check Table 1 of Hayakawa et al's 2019 paper for details.)

"This is likely happening much more often than previously thought," says Hayakawa.

Are we overdue for another Carrington Event? Maybe. In fact, we might have just missed one.

In July 2012, NASA and European spacecraft watched an extreme solar storm erupt from the sun and narrowly miss Earth. "If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces," announced Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado at a NOAA Space Weather Workshop 2 years later. "It might have been stronger than the Carrington Event itself."
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Offline Conrad

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2020, 07:49:33 am »
Can you imagine if something like this happened in our time?
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Offline gPink

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2020, 12:56:49 pm »
Can you imagine if something like this happened in our time?

I imagine we wouldn't be having this conversation.   ;D
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Offline B.D.F.

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2020, 01:11:35 pm »
Well, at least not without opening a window and using your outdoor voice.....

Brian

I imagine we wouldn't be having this conversation.   ;D
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Offline VirginiaJim

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2020, 02:11:09 pm »
From what I heard from the shoe shine guy, the sun isn't producing many sun spots or having flares.  It's in a cool down period.
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Offline gPink

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2020, 02:37:35 pm »
What????? No more global warming?
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Offline VirginiaJim

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2020, 04:41:44 pm »
You know, that's exactly what I was thinking.  How will this affect Global Warming?  Unfortunately it could go way worse than Global Warming and cool us down into the next ice age..  I don't like the cold at all.
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Offline fartymarty

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2020, 09:10:09 pm »
I'm no astronomer (well I guess I'm an amateur astronomer since I look up now and then ), but isn't "heating up" and "cooling off" only the terms used to describe sun storm activity and not really the amount of heat radiating from the sun?...and if so wouldn't that mean if the sun storm activity was cooling down and that also means fewer sun spots doesn't that mean that we would receive slightly more radiant heat from the sun because there are fewer or no sunspots to block the heat leaving Global Warming alive and well...and...and.. if so doesn't that mean to imply anything else is not only un-American but almost treasonous?  Well I for one am not gonna sit here and...

OOPs lost my head...sorry, for a minute there I was in the student council trial scene of Animal House.   ::)

Offline Boomer

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2020, 02:38:02 am »
Sunspots increase the energy reaching the earths surface.
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.html

As for a CME like Carrington, if a big one happens today, many systems will get knocked out but probably not the "major disaster" like some are predicting. Many of our power systems and other infrastructure are protected to one degree or another and direct effects on personal electronics devices are minimal.

Global warming is a fact. Global average temperatures are rising.
Whether man-made activities are a major or minor part of it is still being debated but there is no doubt that it is a part of it.
George "Boomer" Garratt
Wickford, UK


Offline gPink

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2020, 05:29:53 am »
Whose fact and why should i accept it?  Because a bunch of political 'scientists'  got together and cried "EUREKA...we have consensus!"...now send us your tax money so we can live comfortably ever after? Enjoy your hoax.
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Offline Conrad

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2020, 07:48:43 am »
Here we go again.

Stupidity reigns in this country. Scientists know nothing and they all have a political agendas because they're all out to 'get us'. Scientists just want to seed discord because? Well, that's what they do. 

While we enjoy this hoax there's another hoax to enjoy as well. The pandemic. Oh wait, that's going to disappear like magic when the warm weather gets here, right? Oh wait, it is warm out. Maybe it's not warm enough? Maybe global warming will save the day after all?
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"Don't bother me with facts, Son. I've already made up my mind." -Foghorn Leghorn

Offline gPink

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2020, 09:48:54 am »
For every 'fact' from one side there is a counter 'fact' from another. Who gets to decide 'My scientists can whup your scientists'. It would seem that there is enough stupidity to go around. Thanks for sharing.
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Offline fartymarty

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2020, 11:29:29 am »
Sunspots increase the energy reaching the earths surface.
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.html


Quote from: Link that Boomer cited
Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would decrease as the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased. However direct satellite measurements of irradiance have shown just the opposite to be the case. This means that more sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that global temperatures should rise.


Thanks Boomer!
You too Mr. C.
Pinkie?...well thanks for shedding light from the QAnon side of the Sun.

Offline B.D.F.

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2020, 12:07:42 pm »
And they're off! Gary gets off to an early start using the ole' 'It is all a hoax' theory, while Conrad takes the inside track via the ever- popular 'See how foolish that other argument is?' retort. Gary seems a bit winded and temporizes with the ancient but always effective 'Oh yeah, oh yeah?' comeback. I think he wants to take a breather without giving up his position.

We've got a pressure cooker going here folks and one can only imagine how long it will take us (them) to get to the REAL truth rather than that pesky 'fakey' truth.

The InterWebs have not seen this kind of close, precise banter since ole' Cap'n Bob and I debated KiPass. Of course that was different 'cause obviously Bob was wrong and one of youse guize is right..... probably.  :rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao:

Brian (who really knows what is going on but does not want to spread it all around)

P.S. I am starting to wonder about the whole Carrington event thingy, maybe that is not real. Then again, how do we really know there is a sun out there to generate these supposed sunspots, hmmmm? Hmmmmmmmm?

Whose fact and why should i accept it?  Because a bunch of political 'scientists'  got together and cried "EUREKA...we have consensus!"...now send us your tax money so we can live comfortably ever after? Enjoy your hoax.

Here we go again.

Stupidity reigns in this country. Scientists know nothing and they all have a political agendas because they're all out to 'get us'. Scientists just want to seed discord because? Well, that's what they do. 

While we enjoy this hoax there's another hoax to enjoy as well. The pandemic. Oh wait, that's going to disappear like magic when the warm weather gets here, right? Oh wait, it is warm out. Maybe it's not warm enough? Maybe global warming will save the day after all?


For every 'fact' from one side there is a counter 'fact' from another. Who gets to decide 'My scientists can whup your scientists'. It would seem that there is enough stupidity to go around. Thanks for sharing.
Homo Sapiens Sapiens and just a tad of Neanderthal but it usually does not show....  My Private mail is blocked; it is not you, it is me, just like that dating partner said all those years ago. Please send an e-mail if you want to contact me privately.

KiPass keeping you up at night? Fuel gauge warning burning your retinas? Get unlimited peace and harmony here: www.incontrolne.com

Offline Pilgrim

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Re: The Carrington Event was not unique
« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2020, 02:36:48 pm »

 :rotflmao: